Discovery Park Undergraduate Research Internship Program

"Analysis of hurricane forecast ensembles"

About the Project

Project Time & Type:
Fall 2012 - DURI
Research area(s):
statistics, mathematics, atmospheric sciences, civil engineering, computer science
Project Description:
Like the US National Weather Service, there are several international service center which perform routine hurricane forecasts with highly sophisticated computer models. Their past forecast results are made available to the scientific community. For each hurricane case, from a starting time, a center performed multiple (10-50) forecasts for up to 240 hours. These forecasts are collectively called "an ensemble forecast". The design idea behind the ensemble forecast is that the model consensus may offer the most confident forecast. In this project, we analyze past ensemble forecasts and create a mathematical model out of them. The goal is to push the ensemble utility beyond individual center and improve landfalling hurricane forecast using multiple-center ensembles.
Expected Student Contributions:
The student will assist with hurricane case survey, download 20-30 hurricane forecast data, and data analysis with basic statistics as well as more advanced methods developed by the senior project members.
Related Website(s):
Desired Qualifications:
Enthusiasm in physics, mathematics, and hurricane forecasts. Strong aspiration to attend graduate school for advanced studies. Minimum GPA 3.3 for quantitative courses. Student needs to have completed multivariate calculus, ordinary differential equations, and a first course in statistics. Computer skills are necessary. Student needs to be able to program with MatLab, including data I/O and visualization. The professors may accept an otherwise qualified student with the agreement that the student starts learning MatLab immediately and becomes proficient by the Fall of 2012.
Estimated Weekly Hours:
Department awards independent research credits for this project?
Yes, 4 credit hours

Professor in Charge

Tung, Wen-wen
dept of earth and atmospheric sciences

Student Supervisor

Wen-wen Tung
Associate Professor

Cooperating Faculty

Bo Li